Roozbeh Balounejad Nouri, Amirali Farhang,
Volume 12, Issue 45 (11-2021)
Abstract
This paper aims at investigating the asymmetric impact of long-term and short-term macroeconomic variables on the capital market prices of Iran.Macroeconomic variables are inflation, exchange rate, non-oil trade balance and crude oil prices. In order to investigate these relationships, the quantile autoregressive distributed lag (QARDL) method introduced by Cho et al. (2015) has been used. For this purpose, monthly data related to Iran's economy in the period 2008: M9-2021: M6, have been used. Findings show that in the short run, the macro variables used except the trade balance and oil prices have an asymmetric effect on the capital market price index. In the long run, all variables except oil price have an asymmetric effect on the stock price index and the effect of oil price is symmetrical and significant. This conclusion shows that in situations where the stock market price index is in a state of prosperity, recession or normal, except for oil prices, the effect of research variables on this index is not the same and even this effect is different in the short and long term.
Amirali Farhang, Majid Afsharirad, Ali Mohammadpour,
Volume 13, Issue 47 (5-2022)
Abstract
The main objective of this article is to investigate the effect of the tax burden and corruption perceptions index, as well as the interactive effect of these two variables on the total factors of productivity, using the panel data of 18 countries in the Middle East and North Africa region (MENA) during 2002 - 2020 and Pooled Mean Group (PMG) method. The results of the study showed that increasing the tax burden without the corruption perceptions index reduces the productivity of the production factors in both the short and long term, While the increase of the corruption perceptions index and the joint effects of the corruption perception index and the tax burden have a positive and significant effect on the productivity of all production factors. The positive interaction effect of the tax burden and the corruption perceptions index on the productivity of the total production factors indicates that the increase in the corruption perception index reduces the negative effect of the tax burden on the productivity of the total production factors. An increase of one unit of the tax burden has had a negative and significant impact of 0.027 and 0.019 units on the productivity of all production factors in the short and long term, respectively, While the increase of the corruption perception index and the interactive effects of the corruption perceptions index and the tax burden are 0.022, 0.041 a and in the long term, 0.048 and 0.069 units have had a positive and significant effect on it.
Mr Hamed Pourakbar, Dr Eskandari Sabzi, Dr Amir Ali Farhang, Dr Rostam Garehdaghi,
Volume 13, Issue 50 (3-2023)
Abstract
Recently, time-varying uncertainty has attracted a lot of attention from policymakers and academics and has led to the growth of literature identifying the transmission mechanisms of uncertainty shocks. Precautionary pricing incentive is an important mechanism that amplifies uncertainty shocks. The conclusion from the comparison of allocations under optimal monetary policies is modeled in two common pricing approaches, Calvo and Rotemberg.
The main goal of this research is to investigate the optimal monetary policy with uncertainty in Iran's economy under different pricing conditions by modeling two common pricing approaches, Calvo and Rotemberg, which is based on a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model based on the new Keynesian perspective using The available information and statistics of Iran's economy from 2001 to 2021, have been designed according to the realities of Iran's economy.
The results showed that the uncertainty shocks under Calvo and Rotemberg's pricing assumptions when the monetary policy is adjusted based on Taylor's empirical law are spread differently in the Iranian economy. In such a way that they behave like cost pressure shocks under Calvo pricing and negative demand shocks under Rotemberg pricing. However, the optimal monetary policy leads to the stabilization of both inflation and output gap under both pricing assumptions. In other words, adopting optimal monetary policies can lead to economic stability. Because optimal monetary policy removes not only the discretionary savings incentive of households but also the discretionary pricing incentive of firms, the key channel differentiates Calvo's pricing prediction from Rothenberg's pricing prediction under empirical Taylor. According to the results of the present research, it is suggested to use the monetary rule for policy-making to create a nominal anchor for economic actors and not to use discretionary policies in order not to create inflationary expectations in the economy.
