دوره 11، شماره 41 - ( 7-1399 )
سال11 شماره 41 صفحات 196-145 |
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Naseri S A, Jabal Ameli F, Barkhordary Dorbash S. Investigating the Correlation of Selected Banks with Dynamic Conditional Correlation (DCC) Model and Identifying Systemically Important Banks with Conditional Value at Risk and Shapley Value Method. jemr 2020; 11 (41) :145-196
URL: http://jemr.khu.ac.ir/article-1-2043-fa.html
URL: http://jemr.khu.ac.ir/article-1-2043-fa.html
ناصری سید علی، جبل عاملی فرخنده، برخورداری دورباش سجاد. بررسی همبستگی بانکهای منتخب با مدل همبستگی شرطی پویا (DCC) و شناسایی بانکهای دارای اهمیت سیستمیک با روش ارزش در معرض خطر شرطی و ارزش شیپلی. تحقیقات مدلسازی اقتصادی. 1399; 11 (41) :145-196
1- دانشگاه تهران ، salinaseri@yahoo.com
2- دانشگاه تهران
2- دانشگاه تهران
چکیده: (3920 مشاهده)
ریسک سیستمیک در اثر حرکت همزمان یا همبستگی بین بخشهای بازار ایجاد میشود؛ بنابراین ریسک سیستمیک زمانی اتفاق میافتد که همبستگی بالایی بین ریسکها و بحرانهای بخشهای مختلف بازار یا موسسات فعال در اقتصاد وجود داشته باشد یا زمانی که ریسکهای بخشهای مختلف در یک بخش از بازار یا یک کشور با سایر بخشها و کشورهای دیگر مرتبط و همبسته باشد. در این مقاله یک سنجه برای محاسبه ریسک سیستمیک به منظور توصیف کارای اهمیت سیستمیک هر موسسه مالی در یک سیستم ارایه شده است. برای بررسی همبستگی متغیر در زمان بانک¬های مختلف به یکدیگر از متدولوژی DCC-GARCH با توزیعهای نرمال و t-استیودنت استفاده شده است. نتایج این بخش نشان میدهد که کاربست مدلDCC-GARCH-student-t نسبت به مدل DCC-GARCH-normalارجحیت دارد. به منظور بررسی وجود اثر اهرمی از مدل GJR-GARCH استفاده گردید و نتایج حاصل از تخمین، وجود عدم تقارن و عدم وجود اثر اهرمی را در داده¬ها نشان داد. در بررسی همبستگی شرطی پویای بین بانک¬های منتخب نیز ملاحظه میشود که α_C .β_C برای هر دو حالت تخمین معنادار نیستند در نتیجه در هر دو حالت برآورد شده بر اساس توزیع نرمال و t-استیودنتα_C=β_C=0 بوده و مدل به همبستگی شرطی ثابت تبدیل میشود.
بر اساس نتایج حاصل از ارزش شیپلی و به منظور تخصیص ریسک کل بین بانک¬های موجود در نمونه، به ترتیب بانک¬های پارسیان، ملت، اقتصاد نوین، تجارت و صادرات دارای بیشترین اهمیت سیستمیکی برای دوره زمانی مورد بررسی از 27/03/1388 تا 17/02/1398 هستند
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